Eli Lilly’s New Weight Loss Drug Could Generate $4.1 Billion in Sales by 2031, According to Report
A recent report from data analytics firm GlobalData suggests that sales of Eli Lilly’s newly approved weight loss medication, Zepbound, could reach $4.1 billion in the US by 2031. This figure is approximately half of what its rival, Novo Nordisk’s weight loss therapy Wegovy, is projected to generate by that year.
Both Wegovy and Zepbound are also indicated for type 2 diabetes, as Ozempic and Mounjaro generated $8.6 billion and $482.5 million in global sales in 2022, respectively.
Approval and Launch
The latest forecast from GlobalData comes shortly after the FDA’s approval of Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 receptor agonist, tirzepatide, for chronic weight management in adults. The Indiana-based pharmaceutical giant plans to launch the product before the end of the year at a monthly list price of approximately $1,060, with a 20% discount compared to Wegovy, also known as semaglutide.
“Zepbound is Eli Lilly’s first drug indicated for obesity, and its entry into the obesity space will intensify competition for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy as the reference therapy,” noted Sara Reci, Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst at GlobalData.
Despite adoption obstacles such as lack of insurance coverage and production limitations, the pharmaceutical industry’s focus on discovering more effective weight loss medications will drive this indication to a value of $27.6 billion in the US by 2031, according to GlobalData’s patient-based forecast.
Competition and Future Developments
Other major drug manufacturers developing weight loss medications include Pfizer and Amgen. Last week, AstraZeneca signed a deal worth up to $2 billion with Chinese biotech company Eccogene to develop an oral once-daily GLP-1 receptor agonist for conditions including weight loss.
“However, the competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to gain patient share for this indication is expected to be fierce, and it will be important to keep an eye on,” added Reci from GlobalData.